A Revaluation of the Metals Market: A Transformation Driven Jointly by New Energy and Monetary Logic
Release time:
2025-12-22
Source:
TIJO
Number of visits:
For colleagues in the metal powder industry, 2025 will undoubtedly be a year etched deeply into our memories. From production workshops to procurement departments, and from precious metals to industrial metals, “rising prices” have become the common keyword. This is not merely a typical cyclical fluctuation—it’s a profound, global “reassessment of value.” Understanding the underlying drivers behind this trend is crucial for us to anticipate costs, plan procurement, and even formulate our company’s long-term strategy.
I. Market Overview: Precious metals soar ahead, while the divergence among industrial metals intensifies.
In the global metals market of 2025, the overall pattern is distinctly characterized by "precious metals leading the rally, industrial metals showing divergent trends, and minor metals seeing their bottom prices rise."
Overview of Annual Performance for Major Metal Commodities
In 2025, the global metals market will show divergent performance: precious metals will deliver strong results, while industrial metals will exhibit varying trends influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Meanwhile, strategic minor metals will benefit from emerging demand and supply constraints.
Precious metals performed exceptionally.
Gold posted an annual increase of over 60%, silver rose by more than 100%, and platinum prices nearly doubled. Central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand have become the primary driving forces.
Industrial metal differentiation
Copper prices hit a record high, with gains exceeding 30%; aluminum and tin prices are supported; nickel and zinc prices are under pressure due to oversupply.
The Rise of Strategic Minor Metals
Tungsten prices have surged significantly, while cobalt and rare-earth prices have rebounded markedly from their lows. Emerging demand from sectors such as defense, high-end manufacturing, and robotics is providing strong support.
| Metal category | Representative variety | Typical manifestations over 25 years | Core driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Precious metals | The record has been broken more than 50 times, with an increase of over 60%. Breaking through $4,000 per ounce. |
Central bank gold purchases
Safe-haven demand
Dollar Credit Concerns
|
|
| Annual "dark horse," The increase exceeds 100%. 。 |
Combines both precious metal and industrial attributes.
Stock is tight.
Strong physical demand
|
||
| The price has nearly doubled. , reaching a new high in over a decade. |
South Africa is experiencing a severe supply shortage.
On-ground inventory is declining sharply.
|
||
| Industrial metal | LME copper prices break through $11,500. Annual increase exceeds 30% For the first time since 1980, gold and silver both reached new all-time highs in the same year. |
The “iron triangle” of new energy demand is severely mismatched with long-term supply constraints.
|
|
| The price is supported. |
China's production capacity ceiling
Supply recovery in major producing regions (such as Myanmar) is slow.
|
||
| Prices are under pressure or experiencing a slight decline. |
Oversupply (especially Indonesian nickel)
Demand in traditional sectors (such as construction) is weak.
|
||
| Strategic Minor Metals | The price has risen dramatically. The price of ammonium paratungstate has risen significantly. |
Highly concentrated and rigid supply.
Demand in areas such as national defense and high-end manufacturing is strategic and irreplaceable.
|
|
| Prices have rebounded significantly from the bottom. |
Export Controls for Resource-Producing Country (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Strengthened domestic supply management
Anticipated emerging demand, such as for collaborative robots.
|
This boom has now spread to the capital markets. In 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector in A-shares led the entire market with a gain of over 70%, and listed companies in the sector generally saw substantial improvements in their financial performance, confirming the strong prosperity of the real economy.
II. Core Driving Force: Two Major Revolutions Reshaping Metal Logic
The complexity and persistence of this round of market trends stem from the resonance of two major global trends: the new energy revolution and the transformation of the global monetary and financial system.
1. The New Energy Revolution: Reshaping the Supply and Demand Landscape of Industrial Metals
The green energy revolution—led by electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power—and the digital revolution driven by AI data centers are creating unprecedented structural demand.
Take copper—the “king of metals”—as an example: its demand is underpinned by a robust “iron triangle.” An electric vehicle uses four times as much copper as a conventional internal-combustion engine car; each 1-gigawatt photovoltaic power plant requires roughly 5,000 tons of copper. Moreover, the rapidly expanding AI data centers—which are massive electricity consumers—also demand substantial amounts of copper for their supporting power grids. Yet, on the supply side, there are multiple constraints: prolonged underinvestment in capital expenditures, limited new mining projects, and frequent production disruptions (such as the shutdowns of copper mines in Indonesia and Chile). International institutions forecast that the global shortage of refined copper will intensify further by 2026. This long-term and clearly defined mismatch between supply and demand is the fundamental reason behind the resilience of copper prices.
The “irreplaceability” of strategic minor metals—such as tungsten—lies in their exceptionally high hardness and heat resistance, making them indispensable in fields like national defense and military industries, high-end CNC machine tools, and semiconductors. As concerns about global supply-chain security intensify, these resources have transcended the status of ordinary commodities and are now regarded as strategic assets. Their prices are profoundly influenced by factors such as the concentration of supply (e.g., China’s dominant position) and geopolitical dynamics.
2. Monetary System Transformation: Reassessing the Ultimate Value of Precious Metals
The sharp surge in precious metals, especially gold, goes far beyond the logic of ordinary commodities—it represents a revaluation of “fiat currency.”
The ongoing gold-buying spree by central banks worldwide is the strongest cornerstone of this round of the gold bull market. According to data from the World Gold Council, in the first three quarters of 2025 alone, global central banks net-purchased as much as 634 tons of gold. Goldman Sachs points out that if central banks around the world aim to raise their gold reserves to historical median levels, this gold-buying activity could continue well into 2035. Underlying this trend are concerns about the long-term value of sovereign currencies such as the U.S. dollar, as well as a growing demand for hedging against geopolitical risks.
The full activation of financial attributes: Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate-cutting cycle have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, an asset that yields no interest. Meanwhile, concerns over U.S. debt and ongoing global discussions about “de-dollarization” have prompted global capital—including institutional investors—to once again view gold as a “stabilizing anchor” in asset allocation. Silver, with its relatively lower price and dual monetary and industrial attributes, has gained greater investment flexibility.
III. Future Outlook: From Broad-Based Gains to Structural Differentiation
As we enter 2026, the industry generally believes that the market will shift from a phase of broad-based, across-the-board price increases to a new stage of structural differentiation. The fates of different metals will diverge significantly, depending on their underlying fundamentals:
Securities with broad optimism and strong long-term fundamentals:
- Gold: Supported by central banks’ gold purchases and demand for financial hedging, institutions generally believe its price will remain range-bound at historically high levels. Goldman Sachs even forecasts that by 2026, gold could challenge the $5,000 per ounce mark.
- Copper: Due to its irreplaceable role in the energy transition and a clear, long-term supply gap, it has been ranked as the most favored industrial metal by several top institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and CICC, with optimistic long-term price outlooks.
- Silver and certain minor metals: Silver may perform more strongly as the gold-silver price ratio converges. Meanwhile, cobalt, rare earth elements, and others present structural opportunities driven by specific industrial policies and emerging demand.
- Commodities Requiring Caution: Some institutions are cautious about metals such as aluminum, lithium, and zinc, which face risks of oversupply (e.g., increased production from Indonesian bauxite and nickel projects) or weak traditional demand (e.g., zinc used in construction). Prices for these metals are expected to come under downward pressure.
IV. Insights and Recommendations for the Metal Powder Industry
Faced with the new “normal” of high prices and volatile market conditions, industry peers need to proactively adapt their business strategies:
1. Refinement and Long-term Orientation in Cost Management: It is imperative to acknowledge that, for copper, precious metals, and strategic minor metals, high costs could become a long-term challenge. Enterprises need to re-examine their long-term procurement contract models and more proactively learn from and leverage China’s increasingly sophisticated commodity futures and options markets—such as the contracts for copper, aluminum, silver, platinum, and palladium traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange—to implement scientific hedging strategies, lock in raw material costs, and effectively manage price volatility risks.
2. Supply-chain security has risen to a strategic level: Geopolitical factors and trade policies—such as tariffs—have become key variables influencing supply. Enterprises need to assess the risks associated with supply concentration for critical raw materials and proactively diversify and secure reliable supply channels. The “Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025–2026),” jointly issued by eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, emphasizes the development of secondary metals, aiming to exceed 20 million tons in production by 2026. This provides us with an important direction for tapping into urban mines and building circular supply chains.
3. Deepen customer collaboration and value delivery: Turn the profound changes in the raw materials market into opportunities for in-depth communication with downstream customers. Through technological innovation, enhance the added value and usage efficiency of powder products, help customers optimize material costs, and jointly address cost pressures throughout the industrial chain, thereby strengthening collaborative partnerships.
Conclusion
The bustling metal market of 2025 is, at its core, an inevitable reflection of the world’s move toward green and low-carbon development and the international monetary system’s quest for a new equilibrium. For those of us caught up in this dynamic, it presents not only severe cost challenges but also historic opportunities to drive technological upgrades, optimize supply chains, and transform business models. Only by gaining deep insights into these trends and proactively adapting can we navigate the shifting landscape with steady progress and long-term success.
*The views above are for reference only; investment decisions should be made rationally. Some of the images used above are sourced from Baidu Image Library. If you have any objections to their use, please contact us and we will promptly remove them.
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